There have been optimistic forecasts for the 2024 UK housing market, which will be something to hold onto in reviewing the latest report from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The official data revealed a decline in house prices in November. It was the fastest fall in the average house price in more than a decade. London experienced the largest decline with an annual 6.0% fall, but the capital’s average house price remained the highest at £505,000.

Home buyers have returned to the housing market and the average house prices have had the strongest start to the year since 2020. With a greater supply of available properties coming to the market, and lower interest rates than would have been expected, home buyers are showing up and taking advantage of the current opportunities. While there is a typical uptick to the housing market following a slow buying period of the holiday season, the data has shown hopeful home buyers are eager to climb the property ladder and did at a greater pace than usual.

While there are experts forecasting a drop in house prices, which has been a concern for homeowners fearing a loss of property values and a slip into negative equity, a new report has called for a 3.0% increase. Estate agent Knight Frank has a different outlook for the UK housing market. The optimistic forecast for a 3.0% increase in house prices for the coming year is due to an expectation that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will cut the standard base rate from its current fifteen year high of 5.25%.

Homeowner household budgets are being strained. Inflation, the higher cost of energy during winter, and higher interest rates are taking a toll. Over a million homeowners with fixed rate mortgages will come to the end of their deal this year and the change in their expenses could be shocking. They will no longer have their locked in interest rate, and for many that rate was obtained when the Bank of England’s standard base rate was near the all-time historic low. It remained at 0.1% through 2021, until the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted in December 2021 to hike the rate to 0.25%. It remained at 0.25% until the February 2022 MPC meeting when the rate doubled to 0.50%.

It is certainly no surprise that remortgage demand has increased. Lenders have been competitive and are offering attractive deals. Some of the deals are unexpected as they are below the standard base rate of the Bank of England. The deals are so good considering what they could be, and they might possibly disappear as quickly as they came onto the lending market. This is why experts are encouraging all homeowners to shop for a remortgage and discover what saving they might find.

UK house prices have been forecasted to decline in the year ahead. However, the average UK house price for December increased for the third consecutive month according to Halifax. The increase has not deterred their expectation of a fall in 2024 of up to 4%. Buyers are not returning to the market as the data would suggest, but rather there are fewer properties in which to purchase. Supply has dipped further, and it has pushed the typical home purchase to £287,105.