This month a Reuters’ poll reported that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the interest rate setting body of the Bank, would likely go into early 2017 before making a change to the current standard base interest rate. This forecast puts off perhaps the strongest warning that had been issued to consumers that they should be expecting a hike in the rate in 2016. The current 0.5% rate has existed, unchanged, for over seven years.

While the majority of the 50 economists voted that the MPC would hold the rate unchanged throughout the year, 40% felt the rate would be raised before the end of the year. That level was down from the 45% that had reported the same in the early March poll.

There are many factors at play that are keeping the MPC from moving the interest rate upward. One is the EU referendum that is coming up in June, and the other is the state of the global economy. China’s economy is slowing down tremendously and if it does not steady out soon, international economists see that situation causing problems for all of the major economic powers.

The UK economy is expected to show minimal growth through the end of the year, with the Bank falling far short of meeting their target inflation level of 2.0%.

The expectations for the MPC’s decision to increase the standard base rate will be a slow and steady increase once it occurs. In increments of 0.25% to allow the economy and borrowers to adjust, the expectation is that by the end of 2018 the standard base interest rate will have moved from the present 0.5% to 1.75%.

The next Monetary Policy Committee and minutes report will be on 14 April.