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Expectations are for MPC to Leave the Interest Rate and QE Steady for Now

Expectations are for MPC to Leave the Interest Rate and QE Steady for Now

Another month is upon us and that means that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will be once again meeting to discuss the state of the economy and determine if the standard base interest rate should be adjusted. They will also discuss whether quantitative easing should remain as is or new stimulus should be injected into the economy.

It would be hard to find any economist or expert that would admit to expecting the MPC to vote for a rise to the current rate. It now stands at 0.5% and has remained unchanged since March 2009. The minutes from the February meeting showed that due to the tone the members there was a real expectation of a rate change sometime this year. Just a few months ago there were votes for an increase by two members.

Thursday’s meeting will likely bring about a hold on the standard base rate and a hold on quantitative easing (QE). However, the QE will be the most likely to see a change in the coming months if all things in the economy remain the same. No changes to QE have been voted for by MPC members since the summer of 2013.

Inflation, which has fallen below the Bank’s target of 2.0% to a record low of 0.3% is being looked at as a situation that will naturally correct as it is thought that falling oil prices contributed to inflation decline, but some action by the MPC may be necessary to keep the economy on track.

Borrowers are of course most interested in whether they will continue to see low interest rates from lenders. While 2015 was thought to be the year the rate would be increased for the first time, now it may not happen until early 2016. Keep in mind though, that lenders could pull low interest rate remortgages and mortgages from the market without waiting on a rate change from the MPC. Swap rates and other economic factors could make lending more expensive, and that cost will be put upon the borrowers by raising their interest rate offers.

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