The UK housing market is facing a significant period of uncertainty as recent data from Rightmove, one of the country's leading property websites, reveals a notable drop in asking prices. In November, the average new seller asking price fell by 1.8%, equating to a decrease of £6,589. This brings the average price of a British home listed for sale down to £364,833. This monthly drop is particularly striking, as it marks the largest decline for this time of year since 2012.

Usually, it is not uncommon for property prices to experience a slight dip in November. Over the past decade, the average monthly decline during this month has been around 1.1%. However, this year’s drop stands out, both in its scale and its context. The market is being heavily influenced by budget speculation ahead of the much-anticipated fiscal announcement by Rachel Reeves scheduled for November 26. The uncertainty around potential changes to property taxes, such as stamp duty, has caused widespread anxiety among both buyers and sellers. This has prompted many to hold off on making decisions until the fiscal details are unveiled.

The speculation around the Chancellor’s budget is having a clear impact on market dynamics. According to Rightmove, 34% of homes currently listed have reduced their asking prices, with these homes implementing an average price cut of 7%. Both of these figures are the highest seen since February 2024. This hesitancy, driven by the looming potential for tax reforms, is particularly pronounced among sellers of higher-value properties, for whom changes in stamp duty or similar property taxes could have a more substantial effect.

The heightened uncertainty has led to a market in which sellers are more cautious and pragmatic about pricing. Colleen Babcock, a property expert at Rightmove, points out that the high number of homes available for sale is putting downward pressure on prices. Sellers are acutely aware that overpricing could leave their properties unsold for longer, especially in an environment where buyers are reluctant to commit before understanding the implications of the upcoming budget. Babcock notes, “The decade-high number of homes available on the market continues to restrict price growth, with many new sellers keen to avoid standing out by overpricing compared with their competition.” This climate has forced motivated sellers to adopt more competitive pricing strategies in order to attract buyers.

Another factor compounding the current market malaise is the timing of the budget announcement. This year, the budget is taking place later than usual, which has extended the typical end-of-year slowdown in the property market. Traditionally, the housing market experiences a lull around the Christmas period, as buyers and sellers delay transactions until the new year. However, this year, the uncertainty has brought that seasonal slowdown forward, with many would-be buyers and sellers choosing to wait and see how their financial situations might be affected by new fiscal policies. “The budget is a big distraction, and is later in the year than usual, with many would-be buyers waiting to see how their finances will be impacted. It appears that the usual lull we’d see around Christmas time has arrived early this year, and sellers who are keen to move are having to work especially hard to entice buyers with competitive pricing,” Babcock explains.

While the impact of budget speculation and potential policy changes is being felt across the market, Rightmove’s data suggests that homes priced under £500,000 have been less affected by these rumors. This segment of the market appears to be more resilient, possibly because changes to property taxes may have a less dramatic effect on lower-value transactions, or because buyers in this range are more likely to be moving out of necessity rather than speculation.

The release of Rightmove’s figures coincides with predictions from a separate report indicating that UK mortgage lending growth is expected to weaken in 2026. This projection adds another layer of uncertainty for both buyers and sellers, as access to affordable lending is a key driver of housing market activity. However, some experts believe that the anticipated dip in mortgage lending will be temporary, with growth levels expected to improve across most of the UK’s financial services sector in the years following, particularly in 2027 and 2028.

The UK housing market is currently navigating a challenging landscape shaped by fiscal speculation and an unusually high number of available properties. The combination of the largest November price drop in over a decade, widespread reductions in asking prices, and a market-wide pause in anticipation of budget changes has created a cautious and competitive environment. As the date of the budget announcement approaches, both buyers and sellers will be watching closely to see how government policies may influence their next moves in the property market.